Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Retrogressive politics and resource based conflict in Kenya in the wake of climate change


The international media is now awash with reports of massive killings in the South Eastern region of Kenya following clashes between the Pokomo and Orma communities.  Earlier yesterday the Kenyan media reported that about 30 people including 8 security personnel had been killed and scores wounded in the conflict that is now threatening the stability of the country’s Tana River County. Some media reports put the death toll since last month at about 100.

Just to put the current conflict into perspective, Kenya is not new to conflicts let alone ones of this nature. There are instances of conflicts that occurred in Kenya before 1992; however for the purposes of writing this article I have restricted myself to conflicts that have taken place between 1992 and now. And I have purposefully picked on the election years to highlight the role of retrogressive politics in resource based conflicts in the developing world, specifically Kenya.  

In 1992 Kenya witnessed country wide bloody conflict popularly referred to as “1992 tribal clashes” which is widely believed to have been politically instigated and revolved around access to and ownership of land. It was widely witnessed in the Provinces of Nyanza, Rift Valley, Western and Coastal. Thousands of lives were lost. 

In 1997 and 2002 there was more less a resurgence of the same kind of conflict with pockets of it scattered across the country. For some reason the intensity was not anywhere near the 1992, probably a few lessons had been learnt. However, the coastal region was hit badly one more time in 1997. 

2007 was probably the mother of them all since 1992. Following an election that was believed to have been widely rigged, Kenya was plunged into what has now been widely referred to as post election violence (PEV). This was the first time such a conflict had taken on a national outlook. What has continued to miss most eyes is the fact that all these conflicts revolve around access to natural resources and predominantly land which stems from the fact that Kenya is by and large an agricultural economy. Another key thing that keeps missing most eyes is the role played by retrogressive politics in either instigating or exacerbating such conflicts. In 2007 for example instead of the conflict staying on the course of its primary cause – stolen elections – it  quickly degenerated into a resource based conflict with various communities fighting each other over access to land. In Kenya, like most parts of the developing world, access to land is equivalent to livelihood for a majority of the populace. The following examples will show how the politically instigated conflict degenerated into a resource conflict: One, the case in 2007 PEV where the Kalenjin community in the modern day Uasin Gishu County drove their Kikuyu neighbours away from what they perceived to have been their land that was taken away from them by the Kikuyu during the periods when one of their own, President Kenyatta, was at the helm. Two, still in the 2007 PEV, the Kikuyu drove away the Kalenjin, Luo and Luhya communities from what is now Nakuru County primarily based on the perception that the region belonged to them and had been infiltrated by these communities during President Moi’s tenure and to a lesser extent President Kibaki’s tenure. These examples are important because they emphasize the fact that tribal conflicts are not only a preserve of poor small tribes in Kenya, but is also alive and kicking among the larger less poor tribes of Kenya namely the Kikuyu, Luhya and Luo. 

Back to the Pokomo and Orma conflict, it will do us a lot of justice if we first look at their way of life and geographical location in Kenya. And also what makes them more susceptible to conflict with each other. The Pokomo are predominantly agriculturalist and fishermen living along River Tana in Tana River District, Tana River County of Kenya. They are divided into two groups based on their geographical location with respect to River Tana’s geomorphology i.e. Upper and Lower Pokomo. As agriculturalists they are sedentary and have over the years cultivated the land along the banks of River Tana and fished its waters as their primary source of livelihood. 

The Orma on the other hand are nomadic pastoralists who live on the lower banks of River Tana. Being nomadic pastoralists they are given to moving from one place to another as nature dictates usually in search of pasture and water for their livestock which is their primary source of livelihood. But living in the Tana River region it goes without saying that River Tana acts as the primary source of water for their livestock. 

In the wake of rampant environmental change and changes in both global and local climatic conditions, most agricultural economies are faced with hard times as phenomena such as El Nino and La Nina are not only becoming more common place but the resultant droughts and/or floods are lasting longer whenever they come around with very devastating effects.   The effect of the foregoing scenario to South Eastern Kenya’s economy where the Pokomo and Orma live is twofold: One, in light of rampant droughts and flooding the Pokomo, over the years, have suffered enormous losses in terms of their crop harvests and are being forced to cushion such effects through maximization of the utility of their land through increased production during better days and also diversification into other sources of livelihood like entrepreneurial ventures. This has led to among other things their gradual spread into areas that they originally didn’t occupy. Two, increased drought leads to scarcity of vital resources such as pasture and water for the Orma community. In their quest to cope with such impacts they have over the years moved close to the banks of river Tana where they usually find lush growth of pasture and water and then return when conditions are favorable in the regions they moved out of.

However, considering the negative effect that global climate change is having on the Pokomo’s way of life, more than once the Orma do find themselves in a tight fix; faced with a situation where most land that they previously grazed during dry seasons in the years gone by have now been turned into cultivated farmlands by the Pokomo farmers. The Orma blind to the fact that the Pokomo may have acquired legal custody of the land, drive their animals into Pokomo farmlands destroying crops which is the single most important source of livelihood to the Pokomo. In response, the Pokomo find means of getting redress which in most cases involve police interventions. With porous borders and the situation in Somali, the Orma have found it easy to acquire fire arms and when confronted by police in most cases they retreat only to retaliate later, leading to a bloody conflict and unnecessary loss of lives and properties like is now witnessed in the region. 

From the foregoing, the conflict between the Pokomo and Orma communities seems to be such a simple thing that only requires a dose of land laws and regulations and voila the problem is fixed. Nay! It is actually a very complex problem and in my view its solution lies largely in changing people’s way of life. Not a small feat I reckon. To find a lasting solution, either the Orma have to be somehow converted to agriculturalists or the Pokomo made to adopt modern agricultural techniques like green house farming which require high capital, less space but guarantees high yields. Turning the Orma into agriculturalist will make them sedentary and as such there will be less interaction between them and the Pokomo. But in case such interactions occur it will be a positive one mostly involving exchange of goods and services between the two communities. On the other hand, having the Pokomo adopt modern farming methods like the green house farming will mean that they use less land to produce more. This has a net effect of providing the Orma with the much needed land to graze on during dry seasons like they have done since time immemorial. 

These are practical solutions that are very radical but at the same time achievable. They guarantee lasting solution to the conflict only if one last key component is brought on board. The missing component is progressive leadership which Kenya so much needs.