A Yes or No win in the forthcoming referendum will be of a very small margin

Being a passive political animal, I have the rare advantage of a fence sitter which means I can watch both sides take on each other and discern the strengths and weakness of each side. This is the situation I find myself in with regards to the NO and YES camps in the ongoing constitutional debate and/or campaigns.

From my point of view neither side has a clear cut advantage over the other considering that they both agree that the document is good but may need some amendments to make it better. The only point they differ is that of when the amendments should be made. The NO camp wants the amendments before the referendum whereas the YES camp wants the amendments after the referendum.

The NO camp argues that once the proposed document is passed and adopted as the constitution of the land, amending it would be such a daunting task almost close to impossible. Whereas the YES camp argues that Kenyans have spent a lot of time and money in search of a new constitution and besides it may not be possible to get a 100% acceptable constitution in one go.

Both sides have very valid arguments but one thing is clear, amending the document after or before the referendum is surely going to cost us.

After the referendum, passing such amendments may be very difficult that they actually may never get to pass. For instance, amending clauses in chapter four of the proposed new constitution containing the bill of rights will require a referendum to be conducted. This may prove very tricky considering political campaigns will most likely be involved and such amendments may never get to see the light of day.

Before the referendum, opening the document to amendments will be like opening a Pandora's box. It will give room to the proponents of all the 100 plus amendments that failed to go through in parliament during the debate and vote on the proposed draft constitution which saw it being passed as it is, to agitate for their inclusion. This scenario has the potentiality of dragging the constitutional making process for the longest time.

You can agree with me that Kenyans are caught up in a catch twenty two situation. I know certain politicians and some religious leaders (earthly possessed/obsessed) may dismiss this as a fallacy but when they retire back to the comfort of their warm beds and allow reasoning to prevail, then your guess is surely as good as mine.

This leads me into confirming that the referendum will bring forth a win. A win either for the YES camp or NO camp. Only that the win will be of a very narrow margin.

What informs my conclusion on the results of the referendum?

It is no secret that Kenyans have looked for a new constitution for a very long time and that the proposed new constitution is so far the closest they've come to getting the new constitution they've been looking for all this while.

It is also a public secret that politically a majority of Kenyans are psychologically programmed to oppose. Opposing things has been somewhat turned into a fad and politicians have more than once used the "opposing design" to know and gauge themselves. This psychological programming may be attributed to the long duration most Kenyans have spent opposing their governments hoping to one day bring real change which has been elusive all this time.

In light of these two scenarios, you can deduce that whereas most Kenyans have yearned for a new constitution for along time most Kenyans too are prone to opposing "government projects." The catch twenty two situation not withstanding, this leaves the result of the forthcoming constitutional referendum at the behest of how convincing either camp delivers its package to the public. And surprisingly neither side has so far come out more convincing than the other. I would give them 54-56, in either case.

One may argue that Kenyans have read and are reading the proposed new constitution thus will make informed decision come referendum time. I say wait minute. I mean lets face it, a majority of Kenyans live in the rural areas where literacy level is wanting. Besides, the poor reading culture among Kenyans is now an open secret not with recent media reports indicating a sorry state of affair concerning our reading culture. Trust me that by referendum time very few Kenyans will have read the entire document and understood it.

Now back to my fence sitting business. The most important life skill that Asaka snr. (my dad) ever taught me was that, for life to go on decisions have to be made. Whether they will be reevaluated along the way or not is immaterial. A decision has to be made so that people can move on.

And though I started by saying that am like a fence sitter, I would wish to assure readers of this article and all peace loving Kenyans that I have made a decision and that, God willing, come 4th August 2010 I will vote in the referendum.